Sunday, 1 April 2012

The stiletto imperative.

It not even the deadline yet for candidates for the elected mayor of Liverpool and already 2 candidates have dropped out. One citing theatres of find skeletons in his cupboard. The other announced it in a comment on a David Bartletts blog, giving the URL he has always used but now this URL is no longer registered. The site may still be up but the URL no longer points to it, that's a very quick removal, it is therefore going to be difficult to find out why he left.
Who would befit from these dirty tricks? This isn't you normal first past the post election, it has a limited AV element. In theory all these independents could steal some of the big boys 1st preference. Which could have some interesting effects. The victory that the candidates want is 50%+ on first preference. If no one gets that then the top 2 run off, this means that the 2nd pref of everyone who didn't vote for the top 2 are added up and if the 2nd preferences are for the top 2 they are added. The Upper second victory here is 50+% however if neither of the top 2 gets 50% then the one with the highest vote wins. This is a lower Second.
But it's important to note you have to be in the top 2 to go into the second round if you come 3rd you out and in theory you could win from third if 4th and down picked you as 2nd pref. This makes protest votes very dangerous.
Now it is perfectly possible that in the process of sending a message to perhaps Joe the voters could drop him to a 3rd.
Part of the problem is that the political classes hate AV as it would take away there right to pick the candidates, so they deliberately hobble the system, in this case by restricting it to the top 2. Almost guaranteed to cause upset and allow them to show who bad AV is.
So who would Joe go for in order to come up with a strategy to minimise the risk? Alistair Campbell or Malcolm Kennedy.
Watch out for more dirty tricks as Joe doesn't want a 3rd.

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